Knowledge-Based Predictive Tools to Assess Effectiveness of Natural and Nature-Based Solutions for Coastal Restoration and Protection Planning

Predictive tools are widely used to study coastal and deltaic systems in support of basic research, planning efforts, engineering design, and the implementation of restoration or protection strategies. They have been extensively used to evaluate the effectiveness of natural and nature-based solutions (NNBS) to support ecosystem functions and services of coastal ecosystems and human communities experiencing increased risk from sea-level rise and severe storms. The potential benefits of NNBS are being increasingly recognized, particularly in remote areas or areas that are either technically or financially infeasible to be protected with levees or other difficult engineering alternatives. Local communities, however, are often excluded from proposing, screening, or evaluating NNBS as restoration and protection strategies. Communities are also not sufficiently involved in the development or application of the predictive tools. This research effort outlines an approach to developing knowledge-based predictive tools and a community engagement process to evaluate NNBS strategies proposed predominantly by local communities. Incorporating knowledge from local communities benefits and potentially improves the performance of predictive tools and their ability to capture visible trends and observations. To illustrate this concept, the authors present landscape models for coastal Louisiana that successfully reproduced the frequency of flooding of local roads, rate of shoreline erosion, salinity pattern changes, and presence/absence of key species (e.g., brown shrimp, oysters, and so forth). While these qualitative measures are not a substitute for well-established rigorous and quantitative model performance assessment approaches, they offer an effective approach to engage local communities and incorporate their knowledge in the development of the predictive models and the proposed protection and restoration strategies to be examined.